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Causes of Death in Each Stage of the Demographic Transition (Epidemiologic Transition)
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The epidemiologic transition describes how the leading causes of death shift as a society moves through the demographic transition. It is the health companion to the birth and death rate curves.
Causes of death by stage
| Stage | Death rate | Typical leading causes |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | High, fluctuating | Famine, epidemics, infectious and parasitic disease, infant deaths |
| 2 | Falling fast | Infectious disease still common, but sanitation, vaccines and food supply cut deaths |
| 3 | Low and still falling | Infectious deaths are rarer; chronic, degenerative disease rises |
| 4 | Low and stable | Cardiovascular disease, cancer, other chronic disease of older age |
| 5 (proposed) | May rise slightly | Chronic disease of aging; a shrinking, older population, with possible new infections |
Why deaths shift
- Better sanitation, clean water and vaccination reduce infectious causes.
- Higher food security reduces famine.
- More people reach old age, so conditions of aging become the leading causes.
- Behavior and environment (diet, smoking, inactivity) add to chronic disease in later stages.
Link to life expectancy
Life expectancy rises across stages 2 and 3 mainly because infant and child deaths fall. Population growth in stage 2 is the gap between a falling death rate and a still-high birth rate.
Common traps
- Putting chronic disease in stage 1. Few people live long enough for it to dominate.
- Saying the death rate is highest in stage 2. It is highest in stage 1 and falls in stage 2.
- Confusing causes with rates. A question may ask about the cause of death, not whether the rate rose or fell.
One-minute recap
- Stage 1: infection and famine.
- Stage 2: infection declining as public health improves.
- Stage 3 to 4: chronic and degenerative disease.
Check yourself: 5-question mini-quiz
1. What is the epidemiologic transition?
The shift in leading causes of death from infectious disease and famine to chronic, degenerative disease.
2. Which causes of death dominate stage 1?
Famine, epidemics and infectious disease.
3. Which causes dominate stage 4?
Cardiovascular disease, cancer and other chronic disease.
4. Why does life expectancy rise in stages 2 and 3?
Infant and child deaths from infectious disease fall.
5. Why does the population grow fast in stage 2?
The death rate falls while the birth rate remains high.
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